Republican Primary Battle

Well, everyone else is talking and writing about it, I might as well do the same. Herman Cain has become the first target of a massive, vicious attack on his character. To date, four women have come out to claim that the presidential candidate sexually harassed them. Two of these women have come forward, and at least one has provided graphic detail of Cain’s misconduct. Here is Sharon Bialek’s account of what happened according to the LA Times. http://articles.latimes.com/2011/nov/07/nation/la-na-1108-cain-accuser-20111108

I cannot comment on Cain’s guilt or innocence. I am instead interested in the politics around this claim. This is, of course, not happening in a vacuum. Herman Cain is running for the office of President of the United States. He, along with his GOP rivals, is having a difficult time convincing Republicans that he is the leader they have been looking for. As of today, there are two front runners for the nomination: Herman Cain and Mitt Romney. Both are hanging out at about 25% each, with Cain slightly ahead. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

This brings up an interesting question. We all know that Mitt Romney builds no interest in the radical elements of the Republican Party, nor does the Tea Party members (there is a difference, though it may be difficult to see sometimes) rally behind him. We have seen unlikely candidates (Michelle Bachmann) contend for that number one spots as well as shining stars that quickly sputtered out (Rick Perry). And now Herman Cain is the one they are looking for. But is he really? Once again, he is only carrying 25% of the likely Republican voters. If he is carrying a quarter of Republicans, the Tea Party crowd, and Romney is carrying a quarter of Republicans, the establishment and business crowd, where are the other 50% of the party? Half of all Republicans do not like any of the candidates. Romney isn’t a real conservative. Cain doesn’t have any real plans. Perry is too weak (and what is up with that immigration thing?). Bachmann is too crazy. Paul, well, do you think Republicans want less government? Gingrich is the old way, the neo-con. And then there’s Santorum and Huntsman. So what is missing?

In the last Presidential election cycle, Republicans had a candidate that covered all three of their major political angles. McCain had the military angle covered, Romney was the economic guy, and Huckabee was the evangelical candidate. This time, there is a vacuum. There is no strong military or religious candidate. Some are attempting to fill the void (Perry on military; Bachmann and Santorum on religion), but none are succeeding. Why is that? And why has this part of the party been left untouched? The economy is obviously dominating all debates. We are in a recession, one that has lasted four years and counting. Unemployment is high, job growth is low, and the stock market is shaky. European economies are on the verge of collapse while Asian markets are growing in strength. On top of all of this, the Tea Party made a lot of noise about lower taxes, bailouts, and deficits, which makes the economy the top issue again. Republicans have (somewhat) turned around on the wars in the Middle East as a (political) response to the Democrats accepting of those wars. The evangelicals are surprisingly quiet this time, with a lot of members wanting morality to be a part of the candidates every day life, and as long as lip service is being paid to their concerns (abortion, public prayer), they are happy.

Where does this leave the current candidates? There is a reason why the top two contenders are businessmen. There is a reason both Cain and Romney are trying to paint themselves as outsiders with solutions. They know what Republicans want. My prediction? Herman Cain will slip in the polls, not because of sex scandals, but because he doesn’t seem to have the depth or political savvy to hang on. Newt Gingrich will continue to rise in the polls, because he does have the savvy, experience, and confidence to capture the Republican’s attention, and as he is introduced to a new generation of voters, he will recapture some of that ‘90s charm. However, Romney will remain strong (or as strong as he ever has been) and win this elimination tournament. With his economic background and calm, cool exterior, he will survive the other contenders. Tonight, there is an economic debate on CNBC. As with some of the past debates, somebody’s weaknesses will be exposed, another’s strengths will be accentuated, and one candidate will be seen in a different light.